Bitcoin Bear Market Over? Analysts Point to 50-Week MA

Highlights

Bitcoin broke above its 50-week moving average near $79,000, with analyst PlanB calling the bear market over
The next technical target is the 100-week moving average around $89,000
Bitcoin's share of supply held in profit climbed from 50% to 72%, and monthly RSI rose from 41 to 51
CryptoQuant's Darkfost says traders have shifted from panic selling to buying the dip
BTC held $77,000-$78,000 through last week's volatility before resuming its climb past $81,000

Bitcoin cleared its 50-week moving average near $79,000 this week, and at least one closely watched analyst is ready to call the bottom. PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the stock-to-flow model, wrote on September 19 that the bear market is over, pointing to August's monthly close of $78,571 as the line in the sand. His next marker for bulls to watch is the 100-week moving average, sitting around $89,000.

The call isn't just a chart read. PlanB's own supporting data shows the share of bitcoin supply held in profit climbing from 50% to 72% over the past several weeks, while the monthly Relative Strength Index has moved from 41 to 51, crossing back into territory that typically accompanies recoveries rather than capitulation. Those shifts matter because they describe holder behavior rather than just price: a market where most coins sit at a loss tends to produce forced selling on every bounce, and that dynamic has visibly reversed.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost is reading the same shift from a different angle. In a note also published September 19, Darkfost said bitcoin's market behavior has undergone a substantial shift, switching from panic selling to buying the dip. Where previous pullbacks triggered a rush for the exits, he said the same magnitude of drawdown is now treated as an entry point. The practical effect, in his view, is that sharp downside moves become harder to sustain and short sellers face a tougher environment. Zcash's own short sellers found that out the hard way during ZEC's rally to record highs earlier this month.

Price action over the past week backs up both reads. According to trader commentary tracked by Crypto Banter, bitcoin held the $77,000 to $78,000 zone through a string of macro scares before resuming its climb.

By September 19, BTC was trading above $81,000, a level that puts it ahead of the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and gold on a year-to-date basis by several traders' own comparisons.

That resilience follows a month in which bitcoin's institutional footprint expanded further. Bitcoin reclaimed its spot among the 15 largest global assets from Tesla as BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds pulled in a combined $577 million, giving the rally a source of demand beyond retail trading desks. Momentum in adjacent parts of the market has followed a similar script: a single UNI whale added $9.05 million to a position as that token rallied 145% alongside broader risk appetite.

Not every signal is unambiguous. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, has cautioned that a weekly candle needs a full Sunday close above the 50-week average to actually confirm the reclaim, since intraweek breaks above a key moving average have failed before. Historically, though, reclaiming that line has coincided with prior bear-market bottoms, which is part of why PlanB and Darkfost are willing to put a stake in the ground now rather than waiting for confirmation deeper into the fourth quarter.

The next few weeks will test whether the shift is durable. A close that holds above $79,000 into October would support the case that dip-buying has genuinely replaced panic selling; a fast retreat back below the 50-week average would put the bear-market-is-over call back in question just as quickly as it appeared.