Bitcoin Demand Hits -171K BTC as Price Climbs to $84K

Highlights

CryptoQuant's 30-day estimate of total Bitcoin demand has fallen to -171,000 BTC.
Futures demand collapsed from 164,000 BTC to just 3,000 BTC.
Spot demand is stuck at -174,000 BTC despite strong ETF inflows.
BTC still climbed from $74,000 to $84,000 over the past 15 days.

Bitcoin has added $10,000 in two weeks. According to one of CryptoQuant's most closely followed analysts, the buyers who normally drive a move like that are nowhere to be found.

In a note published Sunday, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote that Bitcoin demand “has not improved, but has instead weakened further.” The numbers behind that line are stark. Futures demand, which measures net buying pressure from derivatives traders, has dropped from 164,000 BTC to only 3,000 BTC. Spot demand remains deeply negative at -174,000 BTC. Taken together, the 30-day cumulative estimate of total demand now stands at -171,000 BTC.

Meanwhile, the price has done the opposite. Over the past 15 days BTC rose from roughly $74,000 to about $84,000, one of its sharpest stretches since the summer low.

How can price rise while demand falls?

CryptoQuant's demand metric is not a count of buy orders. It estimates how much Bitcoin is being absorbed by the market compared with how much long-term holders are releasing, over a rolling 30-day window. A negative reading means more coins have reached the market than new demand has soaked up.

Price can still rise in that environment if sell-side pressure eases faster than buying weakens. Darkfost has previously described Bitcoin's stability through seller exhaustion: holders who wanted out have largely left, so even thin bids can move the price. That kind of rally is real, but it is fragile, because it depends on sellers staying quiet, not on new money arriving.

The trend is also getting worse, not better. Two and a half weeks ago, on September 11, Darkfost reported that spot demand had fallen by 145,000 BTC over 30 days, with futures demand up only 74,500 BTC. Bitcoin was trading near $77,200 then. Since that note, the futures leg has gone from a modest positive to almost nothing, and the spot hole has deepened by another 29,000 BTC or so.

ETFs and Binance tell a different story

This is where the picture gets complicated. Institutional flows have been anything but weak. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $998.95 million on September 21, their largest single-day inflow since October 2025, part of a run that also pushed BTC briefly above $87,000. Inflows were still positive but had cooled to $190.65 million by September 24.

Exchange data points the same way. On September 25, more than 13,800 BTC left Binance in a single day, the exchange's largest net outflow since 2023 and well above a roughly 9,000 BTC outflow in late July. Binance's reserves fell from about 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC in four days. Because Binance holds roughly 30% of the Bitcoin sitting on investor-accessible exchanges, that is a meaningful drop in readily sellable supply. Darkfost also read those withdrawals as a possible wave of FOMO from late buyers moving coins into self-custody.

So how can spot demand still be negative? Most likely, ETF purchases and withdrawals to cold storage are being offset by distribution elsewhere, particularly from older coins moving back into circulation. The ETF bid is large, but it has not been large enough to flip the 30-day balance on its own. Without the futures market pitching in, the aggregate stays in the red.

Why the futures collapse matters

The sharpest change is on the derivatives side. A drop from 164,000 BTC to 3,000 BTC means leveraged traders have almost entirely stopped adding net long exposure. That cuts both ways. Less leverage means a smaller pool of positions that could be forced out in a cascade. Across crypto markets, roughly $270 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, a modest figure compared with the $1 billion-plus short squeeze that powered part of the earlier run.

But it also removes an engine that often carries a rally through resistance. Without fresh futures buying, a push above the mid-$80,000s would have to come almost entirely from spot and ETF flows, and on CryptoQuant's measure those are not yet strong enough to cover supply.

What to watch

The divergence will not last forever. Either demand catches up with price, or price comes back toward demand. Three signals will show which way it breaks. The first is whether ETF inflows re-accelerate from the $190 million-a-day range back toward the $1 billion days seen earlier in the month. The second is whether Binance outflows persist beyond a one-day spike. The third is whether futures demand turns meaningfully positive again.

Analysts who argued the bear market ended with the 50-week moving average breakout have the chart on their side. For now, CryptoQuant's demand data says the rally still has not found the broad buying base that usually confirms a new trend.

FAQ

Why is Bitcoin demand negative if the price is going up?
CryptoQuant's demand metric compares new buying against coins being released by holders. Price can rise while that balance is negative if selling pressure fades faster than buying does, which Darkfost has linked to seller exhaustion.

How much has Bitcoin futures demand fallen?
According to Darkfost, futures demand dropped from 164,000 BTC to just 3,000 BTC, while spot demand sits at -174,000 BTC, putting 30-day total demand at -171,000 BTC.

Do the record Binance outflows contradict the weak demand data?
Not entirely. The 13,800 BTC single-day outflow on September 25 shows some investors moving coins into self-custody, but on CryptoQuant's measure that buying, together with ETF inflows, has not yet outweighed supply returning to the market.